Indie 2.0

[UPDATE: 13 Feb 9am HK time: a few new pieces of info (and speculation) point in the direction of this rumor not being true (good!):

http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?p=154951#post154951

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/02/12/is-apple-shedding-its-final-cut-pro-apps-at-nab/

http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?p=154998#post154998]

ORIGINAL POST:
Frank Capria writes in a post on his new ProVideo Coalition site:

Word on the street is that Apple has been shopping ProApps around since late last summer, and a deal was close last fall. Now such rumors have reached a fevered pitch, with ProApps apparently sold with all but the final announcement to be made. Potential buyers include Thompson, which has been on an acquisition spree of late, and would love to add an industrial strength NLE to its newsroom offerings. No one will speak on the record for attribution. Until then anything can happen, but sources say morale in the ProApps group is low. Key members of the team have been moved to consumer-focused products like iMovie. Others have begun preparing for life after Apple.

Whoa! Normally, I don’t put much credibility in rumor. But this one is on a credible site (where Mike Curtis of HDforIndies has a blog/column). And if this rumor is true, it has immediate and financial implications for me. Here’s the background:

• I’m planning to switch my small post-production studio to a Mac and Final Cut studio (currently I run Adobe Premiere on XP, with Cineform to edit HD).
• I was going to switching to Final Cut:
  • to better handle and do post-production on files coming out of my Red One camera (software for which is optimized for Final Cut only, amongst NLEs, at this point)
  • because real feature-length films are edited on it and it has a giant large, loyal install base: thus it’s become a standard and has a good eco-system
• I estimated spending almost US$30k on Apple software and hardware in 2008 alone.
• If Apple is indeed selling Final Cut (and we already know they’re not making any big announcements at NAB, indeed not even attending!) and key developers are demoralized and leaving, I probably will not make the switch. Why sink so much money into a product with an uncertain future. I’ve lived through several mergers and acquisitions–they set good products back for years.

I would guess there are tens of thousands of people like me, who will postpone or cancel Apple hardware and software purchase decisions if this is true. And hundreds of thousands of deeply disappointed current users of Final Cut. People who’ve never edited (e.g., stayed up 5 nights in a row, forgetting to shower and pee for obscene amounts of time, until loved ones intervene and call “time out”, etc.) won’t understand the loyalty and passion video and film editors feel toward their systems.

I really hope the rumor’s not true. Does not make sense to me. Seems a bit like seizing defeat from the jaws of victory, for Apple. (If not “seizing”, than “letting in the possibility of”.) Profit margin on Final Cut studio is small, but if I buy the software, I need to buy two new screaming fast Macs (Mac Pro + Mac Book Pro) which do have a good profit margin. And if I buy the Mac Book Pro, I’ll start doing my presentations in Keynote. And now–on the slipperly slope that Apple’s been lubricating so well ’til now–voilà, I’ve metaphorisized into I’m a Mac user, converted in time to avoid the big bad memory-hogging and inefficient Microsoft Vista. So, if this rumor is true, it’s certainly a fly in the ointment of the slippery slope…

Man, time for Adobe (and Cineform) to step up, at NAB…